Daily stock market review and outlook

Worries and concern as to how the finance minister will manage to meet the government's 4.8 percent fiscal deficit target for 2013/14, while still trying to revive growth amid persistent inflation and that too with general elections expected next year, didn’t allow the Indian stock market to move higher. Although there was quite enough global cues to boost the market. Derivative expiry on Thursday also dragged the markets down whenever it tried to edge higher. The highlight of today’s market was however the sudden crash of Mid-Cap crash of Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks which witnessed a major sell-off. The sell-off has been so unprecedented and huge that the matter is being probed by SEBI.

The 30-share BSE Sensex closed marginally higher by 14.68 points to end the day’s trading at 19331.69. The Sensex surged to a day's high of 19411.18 and a fell to a day's low of 19237.98. It opened at 19365.33. The broader indices, NSE Nifty gained 4.45 points, to end the day’s trading at 5854.75. The 50-share Nifty touched a day's high of 5878.40 and a day's low of 5825.00. It opened at 5870.55.

Of the 50-share Nifty pack 24 stocks ended with gains while the rest 26 stocks closed with loses. The top 5 gainers among NSE stocks are: Ranbaxy surging by 4.91 %, followed by Power Grid (2.75 %), Infosys (2.72 %), Tata Motors (2.13 %) and HCL Tech (1.85 %). The top 5 losers among NSE socks are: DLF (3.48 %), J.P.Associates (3.20 %), Cipla (2.71 %), L&T (2.33 %) and ONGC (1.85 %).

Of the 30 shares of BSE index components, 16 stocks ended in positive terrain, while the rest 14 stocks closed in negative zone. The top 5 gainer in BSE Sensex stocks are Infosys surging by 2.84 %, followed by Tata Motors (2.06 %), Hero MotoCorp (1.42 %) BHEL (1.29 %) and TCS (1.16 %). The top 5 losers of the Sensex pack were: Cipla (2.60 %), L&T (2.30 %), Coal India (1.99 %), ONGC (1.81 %) and RIL (1.01 %).

Both BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap index closed with huge losses on a day when both BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty closed with gains. The BSE Midcap index declined 1.20% and the BSE Smallcap index fell 1.36% in trade today. Among the 13 sectoral indices in BSE, only 4 sectors closed with gains, while the remaining 9 sectors closed with losses. The top 3 gaining sectors were: BSE IT up by 1.86%, BSE TECk up by 1.28%, BSE Auto up by 0.78%. Top 3 loosing sectors were: BSE Realty slipping by 2.39%, BSE CG down by 1.68% and BSE Metal down by 1.08%

The advance decline ratio was heavily in favor of the bears. Of the 2944 stocks traded on the BSE, 897 (30.47 %) rose, 1279 (43.44 %) fell and 768 (26.09 %) stocks remained unchanged.

Market outlook for tomorrow

Asian markets were mostly higher today. Japan’s Nikkei was up by 2.43 %, Jakarta Composite was up by 0.97 %, Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 0.17 %, China’s Shanghai Composite ended higher by 0.50 %, KOSPI Index was down by 0.46 %, markets in Taiwan ended lower by 0.49 % and Straits Times gained 0.02 %.

European markets are trading mixed as investors kept a close eye on elections in Italy, the outcome of which could impact economic reform. FTSE index in UK is at present trading up by 0.01 %, the CAC index in France is up by 0.15 %, DAX index in Germany is up by 0.94 % and AEX Amsterdam Index is lower by 0.20 %. US stock markets are also trading mixed at this moment. Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading lower by 0.07 %, while Nasdaq Composite Index is up by 0.14 %.

Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to remain bullish on India. Continuing their buying spree, FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 280.30 crore last Friday as per provisional data from bourses.

Thus the broad outlook for tomorrow’s market is bearish. However indications of a budget aiming at controlling the fiscal deficit may boost the market. Tomorrow’s rail budget may be an indicator of government’s budgetary outlook. As the passenger fare has already been hiked in January, so that will probably be kept untouched. But if freight charges are increased, market may cheer up and could head north.