Mumbai Stcok Exchange Building

Mumbai Stcok Exchange Building
Mumbai Stock Exchange

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Forecast of today's Indian stock market



Before forecasting about today’s Indian stock market, let us have look at how the global market has done on Monday and how the Asian markets are trading at present. Though Indian markets usually takes a cue from global markets and usually US markets, but today being the day when RBI is due to announce its monetary policy, the market will start the day on nervous overtone. 
The S&P 500 ended at its highest level in almost two months on Monday (December 17, 2012), on rising hopes that negotiations over the "fiscal cliff" were making progress and that a deal could be reached in days. Dow Jones was up by 0.76% and NASDAQ rose 1.32%. The European shares ended mixed on Monday, FTSE100 was down by 0.16% and CAC40 ended 0.14% lower while DAX gained 0.11%. 
Currently, the Asian markets are trading mixed. Nikkei 225 is up by 1.09 %, Straits Times is up by 0.32 %, KOSPI is trading 0.09 % higher and SET Composite is up by 0.47 %. Hang Seng, Taiwan Weighted and Jakarta Composite is marginally down. 
Though there are a fair amount of positive cues from Global Markets, but Indian markets is not likely to start from the sky. Much will depend on monetary policy of RBI. Though the market is not expecting a cut of even 25 basis point in repo rate, but even if there is a a token cut of Cash reserve Ratio (CRR) of about 25 basis point, the market will definitely get into action and will move up. 
According to reports, advance corporate tax collection from the top 100 companies increased 15% year-on-year. The department of disinvestment has firmed up plans to complete at least six stake sales before the end of March and is looking at raising - Rs230 bn. These are all that markets wants to move up. 
Even if the RBI does not comes up with any positive news for the markets, the markets will definitely not end up the day with much loss, because overall the market sentiment is positive. On a day to day basis, go for buying on declines and come out selling the one bought on gain. One thing is for sure, market will witness much volatility today.

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